
Let’s identify statistical outliers among hitters and pitchers on the lucky side of 2022. We’re looking at their expected stats versus their actual stats. We’re using expected batting average and expected slugging minus actual average and slugging for hitters, and expected ERA minus actual for pitchers, according to Statcast/Baseball Savant.
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These are the players whose expected stats were much worse than their actual stats.
(Note: Expected stats are not projections any more than actual stats are. But they are more descriptive of how the players actually performed. In focusing only on the most extreme differentials among players, we’re bringing luck — good and bad — into sharper relief.)
Hitters
There are two components to slugging that we care about. The first, obviously, is homers, but just slugging in general is important because non-HR extra-base hits knock in more runs and put the hitter in scoring position.
The biggest overachievers in homers are Bo Bichette and Corey Seager, who both placed five perfectly in the perfect park. Those homers generally would have fallen short of clearing the fence in other parks.
But we don’t worry about Bichette in either average or overall slugging, areas where he just mildly overachieved. And Seager was a star in our unlucky piece (except for homers, obviously). So to be clear: Do not avoid drafting either Bichette or Seager. Just project them for about a half-dozen fewer homers when you’re building your team.
José Ramírez (CLE, 3B): Ramírez earned an average 25 points less and a slugging average more than 100 points below actual. This isn’t some quirk related to his park or Statcast generally, as his actual average and slugging comported very well with his expected numbers in 2020 and 2021. His homers were not affected, as his trajectory was a career high (suppressing his average). I’m not saying Ramírez is not an asset. I’m just saying he has some fleas. At a minimum, do not reach for him above ADP.
Jose Altuve (HOU, 2B): Altuve was great, but his expected stats were in line with his 2021 numbers. He earned a .269 average (actually hit .300). His homers were inflated by just three due to a career-high launch angle, so you can safely project him for 25. But as with Ramírez, launch angle typically subtracts batting average. His barrel rate was the second-highest of his career. Again, Altuve was much better than he should have been, but that doesn’t mean he’s someone to avoid. Altuve is a top player, just one more likely than most to regress in batting average.
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Paul Goldschmidt (STL, 1B): We all know that Goldschmidt was lucky last year, but exactly how much regression should we expect? He hit .317 and earned .261. That’s a crazy gap. His barrel rate was in line with his career rate but about two points less than in 2021. Goldschmidt will also be 35 in 2023. The way to play these “lucky” players is to not target them. If they fall to you below ADP, sure, consider them. But lucky players are the hottest players in the eyes of drafters (because they had the best stats) and are thus more likely to be overdrafted.
Xander Bogaerts, (SD, SS): You could ignore Bogaerts’ expected .259 average because he played in one of the best batting average parks in MLB. Now that he’s not calling Fenway home, where he hit .317 in 2022, his average is going to sink. This isn’t saying he’s going to hit .259. It’s saying that he’s probably going to hit the career .271 mark that he’s mustered away from home. A .271-hitting Bogaerts is not going to be worth his ADP, I suspect.
Andrés Giménez (CLE, 2B): Giménez’s going from .218 to .297 makes little sense. But his going from his .211 expected to an expected average of .257 is more reasonable. Maybe he can lift that expected average again somewhat with his speed (94th percentile). But do not draft him as a .300 hitter in waiting. His middling power is real. And, of course, with that speed, he could steal more bases. So pay for an upside of .270-15-22, which is worth a lot.
Pitchers
The pitchers have all of their expected stats basically collected in expected ERA. It’s very tidy.
Adrian Sampson (CHC): Sampson doesn’t strike anyone out, so it should be hardly surprising that his expected ERA was 4.40 versus his actual 3.10.
Michael Wacha (FA): Wacha is more borderline with strikeouts, but don’t fall for his 3.32 ERA. His expected was 4.56, far more in line with his middling career.
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Dean Kremer (BAL): Kremer was 4.46 expected compared with his 3.23 actual. You see a pattern already with super low strikeouts, which is why you don’t want these types even in only-leagues and very deep mixed leagues. You don’t even want to stream these types.
Cal Quantrill (CLE): Quantrill was 4.31/3.38. His K% was the worst out of all of the pitchers listed here and actually a career low. If the argument is “he figured something out by not focusing as much on K’s,” run for the damn hills.
Adam Wainwright (STL): K’s also don’t regress to higher career averages when you’re 41. So forget about Wainwright (4.53/3.71) bouncing back to his 3.05 ERA from 2021 (expected ERA then was 3.86). It’s over for Wainwright.
(Top photo: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports)
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